How many invitations did the 15 October 2026 189 round issue, and what did the prediction assume?

The round invited 20,000. The frozen prediction assumed 8,400–9,400.

When was the prediction for the 15 October 2026 round published?

We froze this prediction on 9 October 2026, before the 15 October 2026 round. 5 editions were frozen for this round. All are kept as published and graded on this page.

Where is the prediction for the next 189 round?

The current prediction is at immitrend.com.au/189-prediction. It is frozen before each round and graded on a page like this one once Home Affairs publishes the results. Predictions are a guide, not a guarantee.

189 prediction vs official result: 15 October 2026 round

We froze this prediction on 9 October 2026, before the 15 October 2026 round. The official cut-off fell inside our predicted range for 41 of 158 occupations, and within 5 points of it for 45 more. The average error was 8.1 points.

41Matched
45Up to 5 points off
336 to 10 points off
39More than 10 points off

We assumed: 8,400–9,400
Home Affairs invited: 20,000

Average error: 8.1 points, mostly too high

How the prediction did, in full →15 October 2026 results by occupation →

Every edition we froze

Frozen	Method	Official inside our range	Within 5 points	Average error
7 August 2026	Previous method	36% (57 / 158)	72%	6.0 pts
4 September 2026	Previous method	32% (50 / 158)	69%	6.5 pts
2 October 2026	Previous method	32% (51 / 157)	70%	6.3 pts
8 October 2026	New method	26% (41 / 158)	54%	8.1 pts
9 October 2026live on round day	New method	26% (41 / 158)	54%	8.1 pts

Frozen	In range	Within 5	Avg error
7 Aug 2026Previous method	36%	72%	6.0
4 Sept 2026Previous method	32%	69%	6.5
2 Oct 2026Previous method	32%	70%	6.3
8 Oct 2026New method	26%	54%	8.1
9 Oct 2026New methodlive on round day	26%	54%	8.1

Two editions here predicted the same points for every occupation; they differ in dates of effect or invitation counts.

Predicted and official cut-off by occupation

Columns

Cutoffs

Verdicts

Invitations

Predicted versus community-reported subclass 189 invitation cutoffs and estimated invitations, by occupation, for the latest round.

Actuary 224111	85≤ 11 Sept 2026	85	In range	75–75	~56–64
Agricultural Consultant 234111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	37–44	~131–150
Agricultural Scientist 234112	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	46–55	~88–101
Airconditioning and Mechanical Services Plumber 334112	65	65	In range	23–23	~16–18
Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic 342111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~37–42
Architect 232111	85≤ 31 Aug 2026	85	In range	177–177	~139–159
Arts Administrator or Manager 139911	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	2–3	~24–27
Audiologist 252711	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	9–11	~49–56
Automotive Electrician 321111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	1–1	~64–73
Barrister 271111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	1–1	~7–8
Biotechnologist 234514	85≤ 25 Jan 2026	90	5 pts off	93–93	~34–39
Boat Builder and Repairer 399111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~16–18
Bricklayer 331111	65	65	In range	226–226	~170–195
Cabinetmaker 394111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	1–3	~135–155
Cardiologist 253312	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	5 pts off	0–0	~1
Carpenter 331212	65≤ 10 Aug 2026	65	In range	842–842	~829–950
Carpenter and Joiner 331211	65≤ 10 Aug 2026	65	In range	69–69	~56–64
Cartographer 232213	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	1–1	~1
Chemical Engineer 233111	85≤ 24 July 2026	85	In range	276–276	~255–292
Chemist 234211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	97–110	~129–148
Child Care Centre Manager 134111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	1–2	~3
Chiropractor 252111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	3–7	~58–66
Clinical Psychologist 272311	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	90	10 pts off	4–4	~3
Conservator 234911	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	90	5 pts off	1–1	~1
Construction Project Manager 133111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	140–165	~392–449
Dancer or Choreographer 211112	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	1–1	~12–14
Dermatologist 253911	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	5 pts off	1–1	~1
Diagnostic and Interventional Radiologist 253917	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	5 pts off	3–4	~6–7
Drainer 334113	65	65	In range	7–7	~6–7
Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teacher 241111	85≤ 7 Oct 2025	90	5 pts off	513–513	~232–266
Economist 224311	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	27–32	~176–202
Educational Psychologist 272312	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	15 pts off	3–3	~3
Electrical Engineering Draftsperson 312311	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	12–19	~159–182
Electrical Engineering Technician 312312	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	54–55	~199–228
Electrician (General) 341111	65	65	In range	235–235	~155–178
Electrician (Special Class) 341112	65	65	In range	1–1	~1
Electronic Equipment Trades Worker 342313	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	3–3	~150–172
Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (General) 342314	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	2–2	~76–87
Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (Special Class) 342315	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~44–50
Electronics Engineer 233411	95≤ 11 Apr 2026	95	In range	234–234	~96–110
Emergency Medicine Specialist 253912	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	19–20	~29–33
Endocrinologist 253315	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	In range	1–1	~2
Engineering Manager 133211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	5–6	~25–29
Environmental Consultant 234312	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	63–74	~396–454
Environmental Manager 139912	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	8–12	~125–143
Environmental Research Scientist 234313	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	30–33	~116–133
Environmental Scientists nec 234399	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	2–2	~19–22
Fibrous Plasterer 333211	65	65	In range	11–11	~7–8
Fitter (General) 323211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	2–4	~14–16
Fitter-Welder 323213	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	0–0	~2
Food Technologist 234212	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	116–134	~170–195
Footballer 452411	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	0–0	~2
Forester 234113	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	1–3	~5–6
Gasfitter 334114	65	70	5 pts off	5–5	~4–5
Gastroenterologist 253316	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	5 pts off	1–1	~2
General Practitioner 253111	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	227–275	~518–593
Geophysicist 234412	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	5–6	~11–13
Glazier 333111	65	65	In range	20–20	~15–17
Horse Trainer 361112	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~3
Hydrogeologist 234413	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	1–1	~4–5
ICT Security Specialist 262112	100≤ 18 May 2026	100	In range	36–36	~13–15
Intensive Care Specialist 253317	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	5 pts off	0–0	~2
Joiner 331213	65≤ 10 Aug 2026	65	In range	6–6	~6–7
Land Economist 224511	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	1–2	~19–22
Landscape Architect 232112	85≤ 31 Aug 2026	85	In range	28–28	~23–26
Life Scientist (General) 234511	85≤ 25 Jan 2026	90	5 pts off	78–78	~26–30
Life Scientist (nec) 234599	85≤ 25 Jan 2026	90	5 pts off	34–34	~18–21
Lift Mechanic 341113	65	80	15 pts off	9–9	~1
Locksmith 323313	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~7–8
Management Consultant 224711	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	127–149	~212–243
Marine Biologist 234516	85≤ 25 Jan 2026	95	10 pts off	17–17	~6–7
Materials Engineer 233112	85≤ 24 July 2026	85	In range	70–70	~58–66
Medical Diagnostic Radiographer 251211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	6–9	~112–128
Medical Laboratory Scientist 234611	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	34–50	~119–136
Medical Oncologist 253314	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	0–0	~1
Medical Practitioners nec 253999	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	217–245	~372–426
Medical Radiation Therapist 251212	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	10 pts off	0–0	~16–18
Metal Fabricator 322311	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	0–0	~16–18
Metal Machinist (First Class) 323214	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	0–0	~1
Metallurgist 234912	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	5–5	~10–11
Meteorologist 234913	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	1–1	~1
Microbiologist 234517	85≤ 25 Jan 2026	90	5 pts off	47–47	~9–10
Midwife 254111	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	14–17	~49–56
Mining Engineer (excluding Petroleum) 233611	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	36–42	~73–84
Multimedia Specialist 261211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	90	5 pts off	273–283	~132–151
Music Director 211212	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	0–0	~2
Musician (Instrumental) 211213	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	1–2	~12–14
Natural and Physical Science Professionals nec 234999	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	5–7	~8–9
Neurologist 253318	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	5 pts off	0–1	~3
Neurosurgeon 253513	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	0–0	~1
Nuclear Medicine Technologist 251213	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	0–0	~1
Nurse Practitioner 254411	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	0–1	~6–7
Nursing Clinical Director 134212	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	10 pts off	0–0	~1
Obstetrician and Gynaecologist 253913	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	1–1	~7–8
Occupational Therapist 252411	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	68–82	~288–330
Ophthalmologist 253914	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	In range	1–2	~2
Optometrist 251411	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	5–6	~10–11
Orthopaedic Surgeon 253514	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	0–1	~3
Orthotist or Prosthetist 251912	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	0–0	~1
Osteopath 252112	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	0–0	~2
Other Spatial Scientist 232214	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	16–22	~32–37
Paediatrician 253321	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	4–5	~7–8
Painting Trades Worker 332211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	19–27	~583–668
Panelbeater 324111	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~15–17
Pathologist 253915	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	0–0	~2
Petroleum Engineer 233612	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	24–27	~64–73
Psychologist (nec) 272399	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	In range	37–40	~28–32
Physicist 234914	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	15–18	~26–30
Physiotherapist 252511	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	104–132	~381–436
Plumber (General) 334111	65	65	In range	42–42	~26–30
Podiatrist 252611	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	4–5	~24–27
Primary Health Organisation Manager 134213	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	1–1	~57–65
Psychiatrist 253411	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	2–2	~14–16
Radiocommunications Technician 313211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	1–1	~1
Registered Nurse (Aged Care) 254412	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	193–253	~940–1,077
Registered Nurse (Child and Family Health) 254413	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	5–5	~11–13
Registered Nurse (Community Health) 254414	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	14–14	~50–57
Registered Nurse (Critical Care and Emergency) 254415	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	94–114	~603–691
Registered Nurse (Developmental Disability) 254416	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	0–0	~4–5
Registered Nurse (Disability and Rehabilitation) 254417	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	13–16	~57–65
Registered Nurse (Medical Practice) 254421	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	11–13	~54–62
Registered Nurse (Medical) 254418	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	116–144	~625–716
Registered Nurse (Mental Health) 254422	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	43–61	~217–249
Registered Nurse (Paediatrics) 254425	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	35–45	~98–112
Registered Nurse (Perioperative) 254423	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	31–48	~186–213
Registered Nurse (Surgical) 254424	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	45–63	~291–333
Registered Nurses (nec) 254499	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	818–1074	~3,310–3,792
Roof Plumber 334115	65	65	In range	13–13	~7–8
Secondary School Teacher 241411	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	In range	338–430	~294–337
Sheetmetal Trades Worker 322211	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–1	~12–14
Shipwright 399112	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~1
Social Worker 272511	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	In range	204–256	~187–214
Solicitor 271311	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	92–127	~592–678
Solid Plasterer 333212	65	65	In range	69–69	~46–53
Sonographer 251214	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	10 pts off	1–1	~8–9
Special Education Teachers nec 241599	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	In range	1–1	~2
Special Needs Teacher 241511	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	In range	4–7	~6–7
Specialist Physician (General Medicine) 253311	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	75	5 pts off	7–8	~11–13
Specialist Physicians nec 253399	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	5 pts off	5–5	~4–5
Speech Pathologist 252712	80≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	10 pts off	33–40	~88–101
Statistician 224113	85≤ 11 Sept 2026	85	In range	332–332	~248–284
Stonemason 331112	65	65	In range	6–6	~5–6
Surgeon (General) 253511	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	90	5 pts off	1–1	~1
Surveyor 232212	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	8–10	~16–18
Technical Cable Jointer 342212	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	70	15 pts off	0–0	~1
Telecommunications Engineer 263311	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	220–233	~235–269
Telecommunications Field Engineer 313212	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	21–22	~24–27
Telecommunications Network Engineer 263312	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	72–76	~81–93
Telecommunications Network Planner 313213	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	28–28	~30–34
Telecommunications Technical Officer or Technologist 313214	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	85	In range	15–22	~27–31
Tennis Coach 452316	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	1–2	~17–19
University Lecturer 242111	—	90	—	0–0	~320–367
Urologist 253518	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	100	15 pts off	1–1	~1
Valuer 224512	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	2–3	~64–73
Veterinarian 234711	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	44–54	~77–88
Wall and Floor Tiler 333411	65	65	In range	219–219	~138–158
Welder (First Class) 322313	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	80	5 pts off	14–19	~70–80
Welfare Centre Manager 134214	85≤ 9 Sept 2026	65	20 pts off	0–0	~9–10
Zoologist 234518	85≤ 25 Jan 2026	95	10 pts off	7–7	~2
Across 159 occupations	—	—	41/158	8,303–9,303	~17,458–19,989

Actuary

224111

In range

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 11 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 85
Predicted invites: 75–75
Est. invited (community)†: ~31–72
Est. invited (official)†: ~56–64

Agricultural Consultant

234111

5 pts off

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 9 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 80
Predicted invites: 37–44
Est. invited (community)†: ~55–170
Est. invited (official)†: ~131–150

Agricultural Scientist

234112

5 pts off

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 9 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 80
Predicted invites: 46–55
Est. invited (community)†: ~53–100
Est. invited (official)†: ~88–101

Airconditioning and Mechanical Services Plumber

334112

In range

Predicted cutoff: 65
Official cutoff: 65
Predicted invites: 23–23
Est. invited (community)†: ~7–19
Est. invited (official)†: ~16–18

Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic

342111

20 pts off

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 9 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 65
Predicted invites: 0–0
Est. invited (community)†: ~21–38
Est. invited (official)†: ~37–42

Architect

232111

In range

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 31 Aug 2026
Official cutoff: 85
Predicted invites: 177–177
Est. invited (community)†: ~37–188
Est. invited (official)†: ~139–159

Arts Administrator or Manager

139911

20 pts off

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 9 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 65
Predicted invites: 2–3
Est. invited (community)†: ~19–28
Est. invited (official)†: ~24–27

Audiologist

252711

10 pts off

Predicted cutoff: 80≤ 9 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 70
Predicted invites: 9–11
Est. invited (community)†: ~44–74
Est. invited (official)†: ~49–56

Automotive Electrician

321111

20 pts off

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 9 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 65
Predicted invites: 1–1
Est. invited (community)†: ~34–65
Est. invited (official)†: ~64–73

Barrister

271111

15 pts off

Predicted cutoff: 85≤ 9 Sept 2026
Official cutoff: 70
Predicted invites: 1–1
Est. invited (community)†: ~5–6
Est. invited (official)†: ~7–8

Across 159 occupations

Community in range: 0/0
Official in range: 41/158
Predicted invites: 8,303–9,303
Est. invited (community)†: ~13,218–24,217
Est. invited (official)†: ~17,458–19,989

Community-reported cutoffs are unofficial and may differ from the official figures. † Invitation counts are estimates — the active EOI queue includes backlogged applications.

Know a more exact cut-off score or Date of Effect for an occupation? Send us the details via feedback — thank you!

Questions about this round's prediction

How accurate was ImmiTrend's 189 prediction for the 15 October 2026 round?: The official cut-off fell inside our predicted range for 41 of 158 occupations, and within 5 points of it for 45 more. The average error was 8.1 points. The official cut-off came in below our prediction in most occupations.
How many invitations did the 15 October 2026 189 round issue, and what did the prediction assume?: The round invited 20,000. The frozen prediction assumed 8,400–9,400.
When was the prediction for the 15 October 2026 round published?: We froze this prediction on 9 October 2026, before the 15 October 2026 round. 5 editions were frozen for this round. All are kept as published and graded on this page.
Where is the prediction for the next 189 round?: The current prediction is at immitrend.com.au/189-prediction. It is frozen before each round and graded on a page like this one once Home Affairs publishes the results. Predictions are a guide, not a guarantee.