2 September 2026

Will You Be Invited in the First 189 Round of 2026-27? September Update

The same projection re-frozen on the August SkillSelect snapshot, one month before the round: an 8,400–9,400-invitation first 189 round, the points cutoff and date of effect it reaches in every occupation, and everything that moved since 5 August after the June round's lapsed invitations returned to the queue.

Same question, one month closer, one new fact: the June round’s lapsed invitations are back in the queue. Here is the projection re-frozen on the 2026-09-02 snapshot — and everything that moved since the 5 August version.

Find your occupation

Every ANZSCO unit group, open and closed — search by name or 4-digit code.

Showing 87 occupation groups

How to read the columns. Cutoff is the score of the last person invited; the date beneath it is the date of effect tie-break — at the cutoff score, only EOIs dated on or before that date are reached. If 8,400 is the pessimistic case (a smaller round reaches fewer people, so the bar is higher) and If 9,400 the optimistic one. At or above the If 8,400 figure you are projected in even on the pessimistic case; between the two the round size decides you; below the If 9,400 figure this round is projected to pass you by. ALL means the whole queue is invited regardless of score.

A note on timing: this is the second dated freeze of the same projection, built from the 2026-09-02 EOI snapshot with one month of inflow projected forward to September (forecast vintage 08/2026, horizon 1). The 5 August article keeps its own numbers untouched, and the 189 prediction tool now runs on this version. After the round, both freezes are graded against the official results.

65–105
range of projected cutoffs across occupations
29
groups where everyone eligible gets invited
12
groups with zero places — cannot be invited
Every figure here counts only EOIs at 65 points or above. 65 is the pass mark for the points test — Home Affairs is explicit that “if you do not obtain a score of 65 points you will not be invited to apply for this visa”. A further 21,089 EOIs sit in the 189 pool below 65 points and are excluded from every queue, allocation and cutoff on this page.

What changed since 5 August

The round-size range did not move (still 8,400–9,400), the closed groups did not move, and 37 of the 74 groups with a computable cutoff still sit exactly at 65 points (August: 39). What moved is the queue underneath 62 of the 75 open groups — and almost all of it in one direction.

Why: the 4 June round's invitations lapsed on 3 August. A 189 invitation is valid for 60 days. At the July snapshot, 4,600 189 EOIs were still in “invited” status from the June round; by the August snapshot, 55 were. Roughly 3,500 of those EOIs did not lodge and returned to the submitted pool, concentrated exactly where the June round had invited deepest into the 65–70 point queue. Across every 189 occupation, July’s invited count predicts the group’s August pool growth with a correlation of 0.80. Carpenters had 477 invited in July and their pool grew by 485; Registered Nurses (nec) had 649 invited and grew by 671. Those EOIs are eligible to be invited again, so they sit in the queue this projection allocates against. The full analysis is in the August 2026 forecast scorecard.

The consequence for a reader is simple: if you hold 65 or 70 points in a trade, nursing, teaching or social-work occupation, the queue at your score is longer than the August projection assumed, so cutoffs rose by 5 points (one group by 10 at the big round) or the date-of-effect window moved earlier. Two examples:

  • Carpenters and Joiners (3312): cutoff 65 in August, now 70 at both round sizes. A 65-point carpenter who was borderline on date of effect in August is now projected to be passed by.
  • Registered Nurses (2544): cutoff still 75, but the window at 75 points moved from 24 March–19 April back to 16 December–30 January. A 75-point nurse with a February date of effect was projected in at the 7 August freeze and is projected out today.
22 of 75 open groups · cutoff score changed37 groups · date-of-effect window moved 14+ days7 whole-pool flips12 closed groups · unchanged8,400–9,400 round size · unchanged
Unit group7 Aug 2026 freeze
cutoff · date of effect, small → big round		2 Sep 2026 freeze
cutoff · date of effect, small → big round		What moved
Mining Engineers23368020 July 2026 → 27 July 202685 → 807 Aug 2026 → 1 Oct 2025cutoff+5 / 0
Engineering Managers13327021 Sept 2025 → 23 Dec 2025757 July 2026 → 9 Aug 2026cutoff+5
Electronics Engineers23349510 Nov 202510024 Aug 2026cutoff+5
Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians312295 → 9029 July 2026 → 29 Oct 20259528 July 2026 → 5 Aug 2026cutoff0 / +5
Surveyors and Spatial Scientists232275 → 7020 July 2026 → 29 Nov 2025754 July 2026 → 11 Aug 2026cutoff0 / +5
Construction Managers133180 → 7527 July 2026 → 1 Sept 20258019 Nov 2025 → 29 Jan 2026cutoff0 / +5
Actuaries Mathematicians and Statisticians224190 → 8512 July 2026 → 9 Nov 20259020 June 2026 → 29 June 2026cutoff0 / +5
Social Workers2725758 Dec 2025 → 20 Jan 2026806 July 2026 → 22 July 2026cutoff+5
Physiotherapists25257011 Jan 2026 → 20 Apr 20267529 July 2026 → any datecutoff+5
Medical Laboratory Scientists23467518 Dec 2025 → 19 Jan 20268013 June 2026 → 24 July 2026cutoff+5
Other Natural and Physical Science Professionals23497010 Feb 2026 → 17 May 202675 → 7015 Aug 2026 → 16 Nov 2025cutoff+5 / 0
Chemists and Food and Wine Scientists23428518 Feb 2026 → 8 Mar 20269015 Aug 2026 → 1 Sept 2026cutoff+5
Audiologists and Speech Pathologists252770 → 654 July 2026 → 7 Jan 2026701 Apr 2026 → 5 June 2026cutoff0 / +5
Other Medical Practitioners25397528 Dec 2025 → 8 Feb 20268016 May 2026 → 20 June 2026cutoff+5
General Practitioners and Resident Medical Officers25316520 Mar 202670 → 657 July 2026 → 10 Apr 2026cutoff+5 / 0
Management and Organisation Analysts22477527 Sept 2025 → 26 Dec 20258025 Dec 2025 → 6 Apr 2026cutoff+5
Solicitors2713753 May 2026 → 13 June 2026804 Aug 2026 → 30 Aug 2026cutoff+5
Agricultural and Forestry Scientists23418020 June 2026 → 8 July 20268510 Aug 2026 → 25 Aug 2026cutoff+5
Economists224370 → 6531 May 2026 → 15 Sept 202575 → 7028 Apr 2026 → 12 Oct 2025cutoff+5
Carpenters and Joiners33126529 May 2026 → 2 June 20267025 May 2026 → 18 June 2026cutoff+5
Environmental Scientists23438019 July 2026 → any date8530 July 2026 → 6 Aug 2026cutoff+5
Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians312375 → 7028 July 2026 → 23 Oct 202580any datecutoff+5 / +10
Veterinarians23477521 May 2026 → any date7516 Nov 2025 → 18 Mar 2026DOE window−186 d
Cabinetmakers394165 → whole pool3 June 2026 → any date6522 Dec 2025 → 20 Apr 2026no longer clears the whole queueDOE window−163 d
Electronics Trades Workers34237022 Feb 2026 → 29 Apr 20267021 Sept 2025 → 24 Dec 2025DOE window−154 d
Other Specialist Managers1399653 June 2026 → any date651 Jan 2026 → 3 June 2026DOE window−153 d
Registered Nurses25447524 Mar 2026 → 19 Apr 20267516 Dec 2025 → 30 Jan 2026DOE window−98 d
Multimedia Specialists and Web Developers26129015 Dec 2025 → 23 Jan 20269011 Sept 2025 → 18 Nov 2025DOE window−95 d
Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers32237518 May 2026 → 4 June 20267525 Feb 2026 → 7 Apr 2026DOE window−82 d
Life Scientists23459017 Jan 2026 → 25 Feb 2026907 Apr 2026 → 21 Apr 2026DOE window+80 d
Occupational Therapists2524704 May 2026 → 1 July 20267020 Feb 2026 → 13 May 2026DOE window−73 d
Secondary School Teachers24147518 June 2026 → 14 July 2026758 Apr 2026 → 19 May 2026DOE window−71 d
Architects and Landscape Architects2321852 Mar 2026 → 12 Mar 20268524 Dec 2025 → 7 Jan 2026DOE window−68 d
Midwives25416524 June 2026659 Aug 2026DOE window+46 d
Telecommunications Trades Workers3132803 Aug 2025 → 14 Nov 20258015 Sept 2025 → 13 Dec 2025DOE window+43 d
University Lecturers and Tutors242110517 June 2026 → 14 July 20261055 May 2026 → 17 June 2026DOE window−43 d
Painting Trades Workers3322808 Mar 2026 → 25 Mar 20268030 Jan 2026 → 4 Mar 2026DOE window−37 d
Chemical and Materials Engineers23319015 Jan 2026 → 24 Feb 20269013 Jan 2026 → 2 Feb 2026DOE window−22 d
Metal Fitters and Machinists32326514 June 2026 → any date653 July 2026 → 24 Aug 2026DOE window+19 d
Electricians341165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 88–88 → 166–166same verdict
Psychologists272365whole pool65whole poolinvitations 153–153 → 184–184same verdict
Plumbers334165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 23–23 → 55–55same verdict
Sports Coaches Instructors and Officials452365whole pool65whole poolinvitations 13–13 → 15–15same verdict
Special Education Teachers241565whole pool65whole poolinvitations 69–69 → 81–81same verdict
Specialist Physicians253365whole pool65whole poolinvitations 51–51 → 65–65same verdict
Actors and Entertainers211165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 9–9 → 12–12same verdict
Barristers271165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 6–6 → 8–8same verdict
Sportspersons452465whole pool65whole poolinvitations 1–1 → 2–2same verdict
Music Professionals211265whole pool65whole poolinvitations 9–9 → 11–11same verdict
Podiatrists25266531 Dec 202565whole poolnow clears the whole queue
Optometrists and Orthoptists2514657 Apr 202665whole poolnow clears the whole queue
Land Economists and Valuers224565whole pool65 → whole poolany date → any dateno longer clears the whole queue
Glaziers333165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 4–4 → 15–15same verdict
Surgeons253565whole pool65whole poolinvitations 16–16 → 20–20same verdict
Panelbeaters324165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 12–12 → 14–14same verdict
Automotive Electricians3211653 June 202665whole poolnow clears the whole queue
Child Care Centre Managers134165any date65whole poolnow clears the whole queue
Plasterers333265whole pool65whole poolinvitations 16–16 → 50–50same verdict
Psychiatrists253465whole pool65whole poolinvitations 16–16 → 23–23same verdict
Bricklayers and Stonemasons331165any date6527 May 2026 → 2 July 2026invitations 48–48 → 74–85same verdict
Wall and Floor Tilers333465any date652 May 2026 → 27 May 2026invitations 60–60 → 68–78same verdict
Geologists Geophysicists and Hydrogeologists234465 → whole poolany date → any date6529 Mar 2026 → 25 July 2026no longer clears the whole queue
Showing 62 of 62 groups that movedClosed groups (12, no places) are identical in both freezes.
Every open group whose projected cutoff, date-of-effect window, whole-pool flag or allocation moved between the 7 August and 2 September freezes. Closed groups are unchanged.

Two things this does not change. The model still has no way to say “not invited” for an open group, and it still cannot be backtested end to end. What it does change is the input: the August freeze projected a pool that had quietly lost 3,500 people who were about to come back.

Who cannot be invited at all

For 61.2% of the eligible pool, the answer is already settled and it is no. 12 occupation groups have no 189 places remaining for 2026-27 and hold the biggest queues in the system: 98,977 eligible EOIs between them, down from 101,481 on 2026-08-03 as two-year-old EOIs keep expiring.

This is still the real story of the 189 pool. Software and Applications Programmers (24,441 waiting), ICT Business and Systems Analysts (12,435), Accountants (10,618), Civil Engineering Professionals (9,916), Chefs (9,118) — long precisely because the invitations stopped. Adding points does not help when the allocation is zero; state nomination (190/491) is where to look.

How to read your row

Three worked examples, from the widest-open group to the tightest:

Electricians3411
1,688
FY places
166
EOIs waiting
166–166
round 1 invites
ALL
cutoff if 8,400
ALL
cutoff if 9,400

Still the most open group in the table. The eligible queue doubled from 88 to 166 — electricians were among the trades the June round invited deep into — and it still clears in full at both ends of the range, with 1,688 estimated places against it. If this is your group, your score is not what is holding you back.

Registered Nurses2544
10,990
FY places
12,852
EOIs waiting
2,047–2,338
round 1 invites
75
2025-12-16
cutoff if 8,400
75
2026-01-30
cutoff if 9,400

The largest allocation of any group, and the clearest example of the August lesson. The cutoff score sits at 75 at both ends exactly as before, but 671 returning EOIs — most with older dates of effect than the March–April window — pushed the tie-break back to 16 December–30 January. At 80 points or above the date is irrelevant; at exactly 75, three months of date of effect are now the whole question.

Early Childhood Teachers2411
816
FY places
11,396
EOIs waiting
152–174
round 1 invites
90
2026-05-18
cutoff if 8,400
90
2026-06-01
cutoff if 9,400

The hardest common case, unchanged in shape: 11,396 eligible EOIs compete for an estimated 816 places all year, only a fraction of which land in round 1, so the cutoff stays at 90 at both ends. Well above the 85 this group actually needed in both rounds of 2025-26.

For your own position rather than your group’s, use the 189 prediction tool, which now shows the 7 August values beside today’s under its fact line, or the live pool by points.

Why the range is more reassuring than it looks

Running the projection at both ends still produces the same useful result: for the large majority of occupations, the cutoff score does not move at all with the round size. A thousand invitations either way changes only the date-of-effect tie-break.

70
4
same cutoff score at both ends — only the date of effect movescutoff score shifts across the range
Of the 74 groups where a cutoff can be computed, how many hold the same cutoff score at both 8,400 and 9,400 invitations.

70 of 74 groups keep the same cutoff score across the whole range (August: 67 of 74); only 4 see it shift, never by more than 5 points, and 29 groups clear their entire queue even at the pessimistic floor. The answer is insensitive to the round size. It was not insensitive to the queue, which is the whole point of re-freezing when new data lands.

How this is calculated

The same four steps as August, with one input refreshed:

  1. Predict the round size. Unchanged: 21,090 planning level ÷ 0.76 places per invitation ≈ 27,747 invitations a year, of which round 1 carries about 30.2% — 8,400–9,400, backtested at +3.32% on 2024-25.
  2. Split it across occupations pro-rata by estimated 2026-27 places, capped at each group’s eligible queue, surplus redistributed.
  3. Project the pool to the round month. This is the refreshed step: the 2026-09-02 queue plus one month of inflow from the monthly-graded pool forecast (vintage 08/2026, horizon 1). 17 small groups without forecast coverage use the static pool.
  4. Find the line. Rank each group’s projected queue by score then date of effect and read off the last row the allocation reaches.

The round-size input everything above is built on — unchanged from 5 August:

8,400–9,400
invitations
8,400
range floor
~9,000
point estimate
9,400
range ceiling

Expected by 30 Sep 2026. Round size backtests to +3.3% on 2024-25. The per-occupation projection does not — see below.

First rounds are the hardest to clear because they draw on a queue accumulated since the previous year’s last round; the average minimum score falls after round 1 in both years we can measure:

Program yearRound 1Round 2Round 3Drop after R1
2024-2583.481.2no 3rd round−2.2
2025-2684.080.579.4−4.6
Average minimum points across every occupation invited in each round. In both program years the bar falls after round 1 and never rises again.

Common questions

›When is the next 189 invitation round?

Home Affairs states the first Skilled Independent (subclass 189) round of the 2026-27 program year is expected to be held by 30 September 2026. The most recent round was 4 June 2026, and as at 2 September 2026 no 2026-27 round had been held.

›How many invitations will the first 189 round of 2026-27 have?

We still project 8,400 to 9,400 invitations, with a point estimate of about 9,000. The estimate is unchanged from 5 August because its inputs are unchanged: the official 21,090 planning level for Skilled Independent, divided by the lodgement and grant rates Home Affairs publishes in its Migration Program Reports. The same method backtests within 3.32% on 2024-25.

›What changed since the 5 August projection?

The June round's invitations are valid for 60 days and lapsed on 3 August. About 3,500 invited EOIs did not lodge and returned to the submitted pool, concentrated where the June round invited deep into the 65–70 point queue. Re-freezing on the August snapshot moved the projected cutoff score in 22 of the 74 open groups with eligible EOIs, all upward by 5 points (one by 10 at the big round), and moved the date-of-effect window by two weeks or more in 37. Carpenters went from 65 to 70; Registered Nurses stayed at 75 but the window moved from March–April back to December–January. The round size and the 12 closed groups did not change.

›What points score do I need for the first 189 round of 2026-27?

There is no single cutoff. It depends entirely on your occupation: we project cutoffs ranging from the 65-point minimum up to 105 points, with a median of 65. Registered Nurses are projected at 75 points, Secondary School Teachers at 75, Early Childhood Teachers at 90 and Carpenters at 70. Look up your ANZSCO unit group in the table on this page.

›Do I need 65 points for a 189 visa?

Yes. 65 points is the pass mark for the points test. Home Affairs states that if you do not obtain a score of 65 points you will not be invited to apply for this visa. About 21,089 EOIs sit in the 189 pool below 65 points on the 2 September 2026 snapshot and cannot be invited at any round size.

›Why can my occupation not be invited even with high points?

Twelve ANZSCO unit groups have zero estimated 189 places left for 2026-27, because prior-program grants have already consumed their ceiling. They include Software and Applications Programmers, ICT Business and Systems Analysts, Accountants, Civil Engineering Professionals and Chefs, and together they hold 98,977 eligible EOIs, 61.2% of the eligible 189 pool. When the allocation is zero, more points do not help; state nomination (190 or 491) is the alternative pathway.

›What is a date of effect and why does it matter?

Your date of effect is when your EOI reached its current points score. Within a single points score, Home Affairs invites in date-of-effect order, oldest first, so at the cutoff score only EOIs dated on or before a certain date are reached. This update is the clearest illustration: for most occupations the projected cutoff score did not move, but the date-of-effect window did, because thousands of returning EOIs carry older dates of effect than the newcomers behind them.

What would make us wrong

⚠This projection has no backtest.

The round size backtests at +3.3% and the pool-projection layer is graded in public every month — and August’s grade was the honest one: the one-month ranges were too narrow for the month a round’s invitations lapsed. The composite — per-occupation cutoffs and dates — has still never been graded end to end. Our date-of-effect data now has two snapshots (2026-08-03 and 2026-09-02), which is enough to show what moved, not yet enough to test against a real round.

  • The place estimates are estimates. Official 2026-27 occupation ceilings are still not published; if a group’s real ceiling differs, its whole row moves.
  • Proportional allocation is an assumption. The department does not publish how it splits a round across occupations.
  • Lapse could repeat. The model now sees the returned EOIs because they are in the snapshot; it does not yet model the lapse mechanism itself. The next round will invite some of those same EOIs a second time, and some will lapse again.
  • The model cannot say “not invited” for an open group. Round 1 of 2025-26 invited only 61 of the unit groups we track; some of our smallest allocations may in reality be zero.
  • This covers the first round only. Once it is held, the pool changes materially and this projection is superseded, not updated.

We’ll grade both

Two freezes are now on the record for the same round: 7 August, built on the July snapshot two months out, and 2 September, built on the August snapshot one month out. When Home Affairs publishes the per-occupation minimums for the round, both are graded against them in the next issue of our forecast scorecard — so you will see not only whether we were right, but whether re-freezing on newer data made the prediction better or worse. Each row is graded against the lowest published minimum among its occupations. Method background: how we test our forecasts. Live round history: all invitation rounds.

Related:189 invitation chancesEOI pool distributionInvitation roundsBrowse occupations
Was this helpful?