2 October 2026

Will You Be Invited in the First 189 Round of 2026-27? October Update

The round expected in September was not held, and Home Affairs now expects it by 31 October 2026. The same projection re-frozen on the September SkillSelect snapshot and an updated places estimate: an 8,400–9,400-invitation first 189 round, the points cutoff and date of effect it reaches in every occupation, and everything that moved since the September update.

The round we projected for September was not held. Home Affairs now says the next 189 round is expected by 31 October 2026, and one more month of EOIs has joined the queue in the meantime. Here is the projection re-frozen on the 2026-10-02 snapshot, on an updated estimate of each occupation’s places — and everything that moved since the September update.

Find your occupation

Every ANZSCO unit group, open and closed — search by name or 4-digit code.

Showing 87 occupation groups

How to read the columns. Cutoff is the score of the last person invited; the date beneath it is the date of effect tie-break — at the cutoff score, only EOIs dated on or before that date are reached. If 8,400 is the pessimistic case (a smaller round reaches fewer people, so the bar is higher) and If 9,400 the optimistic one. At or above the If 8,400 figure you are projected in even on the pessimistic case; between the two the round size decides you; below the If 9,400 figure this round is projected to pass you by. ALL means the whole queue is invited regardless of score. Where the two columns show different scores, each date belongs to its own score — they are two separate lines, not one window.

A note on timing: this is the third dated freeze of the same projection, built from the 2026-10-02 EOI snapshot with one month of inflow projected forward to October (forecast vintage 09/2026, horizon 1). The August and September articles keep their own numbers untouched, and the 189 prediction tool now runs on this version. After the round, all three freezes are graded against the official results.

65–95
range of projected cutoffs across occupations
26
groups where everyone eligible gets invited
13
groups with zero places — cannot be invited
Every figure here counts only EOIs at 65 points or above. 65 is the pass mark for the points test — Home Affairs is explicit that “if you do not obtain a score of 65 points you will not be invited to apply for this visa”. A further 21,201 EOIs sit in the 189 pool below 65 points and are excluded from every queue, allocation and cutoff on this page.

What changed since September

The round-size range did not move (still 8,400–9,400). Two inputs did. The date: the round is now expected by 31 October, not 30 September, so the queue is a month longer. And the places: each group’s estimated 2026-27 places now subtract 2025-26 state-nominated (subclass 190) grants, where September used 2024-25’s. Together they moved 44 of the 74 open groups. The projected cutoff score changed in 20 of them: 19 upward, 1 downward. One more group closed. Only 33 of the 73 groups with a computable cutoff now sit exactly at 65 points (September: 37).

Why, part one: a month passed without a round. Every month new EOIs are lodged and existing ones gain points; a round is what takes people out of the top of each queue. With no round held in September, the 189 submitted pool grew from 180,651 to 184,235 between the August and September snapshots, and the eligible queue in the 75 groups that were open in September grew by 6.4% — from 62,747 to 66,787. The growth matters most at the top: Registered Nurses at 80 points or above went from 1,703 to 2,148 in one month. The same round size now has to get through more people before it reaches any given score. On its own, the longer queue would have moved the cutoff in 22 groups, 21 of them upward.
Why, part two: the places now use 2025-26 state-nominated grants. The Home Affairs ceiling method takes each occupation’s ceiling and subtracts the previous program year’s grants to subclasses 186, 190, 491 and 494; what is left is the year’s 189 places. For 2026-27 that year is 2025-26, which is not yet published by occupation, so the August and September freezes used 2024-25 for all four visas. A Home Affairs data release now gives subclass 190 grants by occupation for July 2025 to April 2026. This freeze uses it, scaled to twelve months, and keeps 186, 491 and 494 on 2024-25. The states nominated a different mix in 2025-26: 190 grants to Accountants fell from 1,274 to about 539, while grants to Registered Nurses rose from 846 to about 1,113. Estimated places across all groups fell from 55,811 to 55,338. On its own, this update moves the cutoff in 8 groups (5 downward, 3 upward) and closes one group.

The consequence for a reader is simple: in most groups the same allocation stops earlier. In 19 groups that means a cutoff 5 points higher at one or both round sizes (Chiropractors and Osteopaths by 10 at the small round); in others the score held and the date-of-effect line moved earlier. Five examples:

  • Registered Nurses (2544): 75 points at both round sizes in September. Now 80 points if the round is small (any date of effect up to 28 September 2026) and 75 if it is large, but then only for dates of effect on or before 12 November 2025 — September’s line at 75 points was 30 January 2026. A 75-point nurse with an early-December date of effect was projected in at both round sizes in September and is projected out at both today.
  • Carpenters and Joiners (3312): cutoff still 70, but the eligible queue grew from 859 to 1,131 and the window at 70 points moved from 25 May 2026–18 June 2026 back to 16 February 2026–2 May 2026.
  • Electronics Engineers (2334): the one group that got easier, from 100 points to 95 at both round sizes. That is the places update alone: with fewer 190 grants counted against it, its estimated places rose from 25 to 155, and its share of the round from 5 invitations to 29–33.
  • Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians (3122): the two inputs pulled in opposite directions. The longer queue alone would have eased the cutoff to 90; the places update cut the group’s estimated places from 131 to 61, and the cutoff is back at 95, where September had it.
  • University Lecturers and Tutors (2421): now closed. September estimated 43 places; with 2025-26 subclass 190 grants counted, the estimate is zero, so the group’s 2,208 eligible EOIs join the queues that cannot be invited this year.
20 of 74 open groups · cutoff score changed35 groups · date-of-effect window moved 14+ days3 whole-pool flips13 The set of closed groups changed.8,400–9,400 round size · unchanged
Unit groupSeptember freeze
cutoff · date of effect, small → big round		October freeze
cutoff · date of effect, small → big round		What moved
Telecommunications Trades Workers31328015 Sept 2025 → 13 Dec 202585 → 8028 Sept 2026 → 15 Dec 2025cutoff+5 / 0
Multimedia Specialists and Web Developers26129011 Sept 2025 → 18 Nov 202595 → 9022 Sept 2026 → 4 Nov 2025cutoff+5 / 0
Mining Engineers233685 → 807 Aug 2026 → 1 Oct 2025857 Sept 2026 → 23 Sept 2026cutoff0 / +5
Electronics Trades Workers34237021 Sept 2025 → 24 Dec 202575 → 7017 Aug 2026 → 8 Nov 2025cutoff+5 / 0
Economists224375 → 7028 Apr 2026 → 12 Oct 20257520 Apr 2026 → 22 Aug 2026cutoff0 / +5
Electronics Engineers233410024 Aug 20269510 Nov 2025cutoff-5
Registered Nurses25447516 Dec 2025 → 30 Jan 202680 → 7528 Sept 2026 → 12 Nov 2025cutoff+5 / 0
Construction Managers13318019 Nov 2025 → 29 Jan 20268530 Aug 2026 → 14 Sept 2026cutoff+5
Cabinetmakers39416522 Dec 2025 → 20 Apr 202670 → 6516 Sept 2026 → 22 Dec 2025cutoff+5 / 0
Veterinarians23477516 Nov 2025 → 18 Mar 2026808 Aug 2026 → 22 Sept 2026cutoff+5
Other Specialist Managers1399651 Jan 2026 → 3 June 2026701 Sept 2026 → any datecutoff+5
Management and Organisation Analysts22478025 Dec 2025 → 6 Apr 20268518 Aug 2026 → 13 Sept 2026cutoff+5
Occupational Therapists25247020 Feb 2026 → 13 May 202675 → 7019 Sept 2026 → 7 Mar 2026cutoff+5 / 0
Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers32237525 Feb 2026 → 7 Apr 2026804 Sept 2026 → 12 Sept 2026cutoff+5
Wall and Floor Tilers3334652 May 2026 → 27 May 20267018 Sept 2026 → 28 Sept 2026cutoff+5
General Practitioners and Resident Medical Officers253170 → 657 July 2026 → 10 Apr 2026706 Apr 2026 → 12 Aug 2026cutoff0 / +5
Audiologists and Speech Pathologists2527701 Apr 2026 → 5 June 202675 → 70any date → 4 Apr 2026cutoff+5 / 0
Other Natural and Physical Science Professionals234975 → 7015 Aug 2026 → 16 Nov 2025759 Sept 2026 → any datecutoff0 / +5
Chiropractors and Osteopaths252165whole pool75 → 7012 June 2026 → 19 Feb 2026cutoff+10 / +5no longer clears the whole queue
Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians312380any date85 → 8022 Sept 2026 → 29 Apr 2026cutoff+5 / 0
Other Medical Practitioners25398016 May 2026 → 20 June 20268015 Nov 2025 → 9 Apr 2026DOE window−182 d
Metal Fitters and Machinists3232653 July 2026 → 24 Aug 20266516 Jan 2026 → 7 June 2026DOE window−168 d
Bricklayers and Stonemasons33116527 May 2026 → 2 July 20266515 Dec 2025 → 16 Apr 2026DOE window−163 d
Carpenters and Joiners33127025 May 2026 → 18 June 20267016 Feb 2026 → 2 May 2026DOE window−98 d
Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians31229528 July 2026 → 5 Aug 20269523 Apr 2026 → 15 May 2026DOE window−96 d
Chemical and Materials Engineers23319013 Jan 2026 → 2 Feb 20269030 Mar 2026 → 2 May 2026DOE window+89 d
Telecommunications Engineering Professionals2633904 Jan 2026 → 28 Jan 20269026 Mar 2026 → 10 Apr 2026DOE window+81 d
Secondary School Teachers2414758 Apr 2026 → 19 May 20267519 Jan 2026 → 1 Apr 2026DOE window−79 d
Painting Trades Workers33228030 Jan 2026 → 4 Mar 20268029 Mar 2026 → 20 May 2026DOE window+77 d
Geologists Geophysicists and Hydrogeologists23446529 Mar 2026 → 25 July 20266524 May 2026 → any dateDOE window+56 d
Medical Laboratory Scientists23468013 June 2026 → 24 July 20268021 Apr 2026 → 7 June 2026DOE window−53 d
Midwives2541659 Aug 20266521 Sept 2026DOE window+43 d
Solicitors2713804 Aug 2026 → 30 Aug 20268010 July 2026 → 22 Aug 2026DOE window−25 d
Agricultural and Forestry Scientists23418510 Aug 2026 → 25 Aug 2026854 Sept 2026 → 14 Sept 2026DOE window+25 d
Environmental Scientists23438530 July 2026 → 6 Aug 2026856 Aug 2026 → 24 Aug 2026DOE window+18 d
Social Workers2725806 July 2026 → 22 July 20268019 June 2026 → 6 July 2026DOE window−17 d
Chemists and Food and Wine Scientists23429015 Aug 2026 → 1 Sept 2026901 Sept 2026 → 18 Sept 2026DOE window+17 d
Electricians341165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 166–166 → 200–200same verdict
Plumbers334165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 55–55 → 72–72same verdict
Barristers271165whole pool65whole poolinvitations 8–8 → 6–6same verdict
Music Professionals211265whole pool65whole poolinvitations 11–11 → 15–15same verdict
Automotive Electricians321165whole pool65any dateno longer clears the whole queue
Child Care Centre Managers134165whole pool65any dateno longer clears the whole queue
Plasterers333265whole pool65whole poolinvitations 50–50 → 64–64same verdict
Showing 44 of 44 groups that movedThe set of closed groups changed.
Every open group whose projected cutoff, date-of-effect window, whole-pool flag or allocation moved between the September and October freezes, from both causes together. One group closed: University Lecturers and Tutors.

Two things this does not change. The model still has no way to say “not invited” for an open group, and it still cannot be backtested end to end. And nothing here says the round itself will be smaller or later — only that more people will be standing in line when it runs.

Who cannot be invited at all

For 61% of the eligible pool, the answer is already settled and it is no. 13 occupation groups, one more than in September, have no 189 places remaining for 2026-27 and hold the biggest queues in the system: 100,933 eligible EOIs between them, against 98,977 on 2026-09-02.

This is still the real story of the 189 pool. Software and Applications Programmers (24,678 waiting), ICT Business and Systems Analysts (12,473), Accountants (10,294), Civil Engineering Professionals (9,886), Chefs (9,089) — long precisely because the invitations stopped. Adding points does not help when the allocation is zero; state nomination (190/491) is where to look.

How to read your row

Three worked examples, from the widest-open group to the tightest:

Electricians3411
1,651
FY places
200
EOIs waiting
200–200
round 1 invites
ALL
cutoff if 8,400
ALL
cutoff if 9,400

Still the most open group in the table. The eligible queue grew from 166 to 200 in a month and it still clears in full at both ends of the range, with 1,651 estimated places against it. If this is your group, your score is not what is holding you back.

Registered Nurses2544
10,723
FY places
13,736
EOIs waiting
1,979–2,261
round 1 invites
80
2026-09-28
cutoff if 8,400
75
2025-11-12
cutoff if 9,400

The largest allocation of any group, and this month’s clearest example of a row where the round size decides. There are now more nurses at 80 points or above (2,148) than a small round would invite (1,979), so at 8,400 invitations the line stops inside the 80-point band. At 9,400 the allocation (2,261) clears everyone at 80 and reaches into 75 points as far as 12 November 2025. At 85 or above the round size is irrelevant; at 80 it almost is; at 75 you need both a large round and an early date of effect.

Early Childhood Teachers2411
745
FY places
12,150
EOIs waiting
137–157
round 1 invites
90
2026-05-17
cutoff if 8,400
90
2026-06-01
cutoff if 9,400

The hardest common case, unchanged in shape: 12,150 eligible EOIs compete for an estimated 745 places all year, only a fraction of which land in round 1, so the cutoff stays at 90 at both ends, with the date of effect between 17 May 2026 and 1 June 2026. Well above the 85 this group actually needed in both rounds of 2025-26.

For your own position rather than your group’s, use the 189 prediction tool, which shows the September values beside today’s under its fact line, or the live pool by points.

Where the round size decides

Running the projection at both ends still gives the same cutoff score for most occupations: a thousand invitations either way changes only the date-of-effect tie-break. But a longer queue puts more groups on the edge of a score band, and this month that number rose.

64
9
same cutoff score at both ends — only the date of effect movescutoff score shifts across the range
Of the 73 groups where a cutoff can be computed, how many hold the same cutoff score at both 8,400 and 9,400 invitations.

64 of 73 groups keep the same cutoff score across the whole range (September: 70 of 74); 9 see it shift, never by more than 5 points, and 26 groups clear their entire queue even at the pessimistic floor. If your group is one of the 9 — Registered Nurses and Occupational Therapists among them — and your score sits between its two cutoffs, the size of the round is what decides you, not your date of effect.

How this is calculated

The same four steps as August and September, with two inputs refreshed:

  1. Predict the round size. Unchanged: 21,090 planning level ÷ 0.76 places per invitation ≈ 27,747 invitations a year, of which round 1 carries about 30.2% — 8,400–9,400, backtested at +3.32% on 2024-25.
  2. Split it across occupations pro-rata by estimated 2026-27 places, capped at each group’s eligible queue, surplus redistributed. Refreshed this month: the places now subtract 2025-26 subclass 190 grants (see occupation ceilings).
  3. Project the pool to the round month. The other refreshed step: the 2026-10-02 queue plus one month of inflow from the monthly-graded pool forecast (vintage 09/2026, horizon 1). 15 small groups without forecast coverage use the static pool.
  4. Find the line. Rank each group’s projected queue by score then date of effect and read off the last row the allocation reaches.

The round-size input everything above is built on — unchanged from 5 August:

8,400–9,400
invitations
8,400
range floor
~9,000
point estimate
9,400
range ceiling

Expected by 31 Oct 2026. Round size backtests to +3.3% on 2024-25. The per-occupation projection does not — see below.

First rounds are the hardest to clear because they draw on a queue accumulated since the previous year’s last round; the average minimum score falls after round 1 in both years we can measure:

Program yearRound 1Round 2Round 3Drop after R1
2024-2583.481.2no 3rd round−2.2
2025-2684.080.579.4−4.6
Average minimum points across every occupation invited in each round. In both program years the bar falls after round 1 and never rises again.

Common questions

›When is the next 189 invitation round?

Home Affairs states the next invitation round for the Skilled Independent (subclass 189) visa is expected to be held by 31 October 2026. The most recent round was 4 June 2026; no round was held in September, and as at 2 October 2026 no 2026-27 round had been held.

›How many invitations will the first 189 round of 2026-27 have?

We still project 8,400 to 9,400 invitations, with a point estimate of about 9,000. The estimate is unchanged from 5 August because its inputs are unchanged: the official 21,090 planning level for Skilled Independent, divided by the lodgement and grant rates Home Affairs publishes in its Migration Program Reports. The same method backtests within 3.32% on 2024-25.

›What changed since the September update?

Two things. No round was held in September, so one more month of EOIs joined the queue: the eligible queue in the 75 groups that were open in September grew from 62,747 to 66,787. And the places estimate was updated: it now subtracts 2025-26 state-nominated (subclass 190) grants, where September used 2024-25's. Together they moved the projected cutoff score in 20 of the 74 open groups, 19 upward (by 5 points; Chiropractors and Osteopaths by 10 at the small round) and one downward, moved the date-of-effect window by two weeks or more in 35, and closed one more group, University Lecturers and Tutors. Registered Nurses went from 75 points at both round sizes to 80 if the round is small and 75 if it is large; Carpenters stayed at 70 but the window moved from May–June back to February–May. The round size did not change.

›What points score do I need for the first 189 round of 2026-27?

There is no single cutoff. It depends entirely on your occupation: we project cutoffs ranging from the 65-point minimum up to 95 points, with a median of 70. Registered Nurses are projected at 80 points if the round is small and 75 if it is large, Secondary School Teachers at 75, Early Childhood Teachers at 90 and Carpenters at 70. Look up your ANZSCO unit group in the table on this page.

›Do I need 65 points for a 189 visa?

Yes. 65 points is the pass mark for the points test. Home Affairs states that if you do not obtain a score of 65 points you will not be invited to apply for this visa. About 21,201 EOIs sit in the 189 pool below 65 points on the 2 October 2026 snapshot and cannot be invited at any round size.

›Why can my occupation not be invited even with high points?

Thirteen ANZSCO unit groups have zero estimated 189 places left for 2026-27, because prior-program grants have already consumed their ceiling. They include Software and Applications Programmers, ICT Business and Systems Analysts, Accountants, Civil Engineering Professionals and Chefs, and together they hold 100,933 eligible EOIs, 61% of the eligible 189 pool. University Lecturers and Tutors joined the list in this update. When the allocation is zero, more points do not help; state nomination (190 or 491) is the alternative pathway.

›What is a date of effect and why does it matter?

Your date of effect is when your EOI reached its current points score. Within a single points score, Home Affairs invites in date-of-effect order, oldest first, so at the cutoff score only EOIs dated on or before a certain date are reached. This update shows both effects of a longer queue: in 20 groups the cutoff score itself moved, and in others the score held but the date-of-effect line moved earlier, because the same allocation runs out sooner.

What would make us wrong

⚠This projection has no backtest.

The round size backtests at +3.3% and the pool-projection layer is graded in public every month. The composite — per-occupation cutoffs and dates — has still never been graded end to end. Our date-of-effect data now has three snapshots (2026-08-03, 2026-09-02 and 2026-10-02), which is enough to show what moved, not yet enough to test against a real round.

  • The date could move again. “By 31 October” is the department’s stated expectation, not a scheduled date — the previous expectation was 30 September. Every further month without a round lengthens the queue, and this projection would be re-frozen again.
  • The place estimates are estimates. Official 2026-27 occupation ceilings are still not published; if a group’s real ceiling differs, its whole row moves. The subclass 190 figures are ten months of 2025-26 scaled to twelve, and grants to subclasses 186, 491 and 494 are still 2024-25’s.
  • Proportional allocation is an assumption. The department does not publish how it splits a round across occupations.
  • The model cannot say “not invited” for an open group. Round 1 of 2025-26 invited only 61 of the unit groups we track; some of our smallest allocations may in reality be zero.
  • This covers the first round only. Once it is held, the pool changes materially and this projection is superseded, not updated.

We’ll grade all three

Three freezes are now on the record for the same round: August, built on the July snapshot; September, built on the August snapshot; and this one, built on the September snapshot and the updated places. When Home Affairs publishes the per-occupation minimums for the round, all three are graded against them in our forecast scorecard series — so you will see not only whether we were right, but whether re-freezing on newer data made the prediction better or worse. Each row is graded against the lowest published minimum among its occupations. Method background: how we test our forecasts. Live round history: all invitation rounds.

Related:189 invitation chancesEOI pool distributionInvitation roundsBrowse occupations
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