The short answer
“How many points do you need for 189?” has no single answer. Invitations are issued per occupation, so every occupation group has its own effective cutoff in every round — set by its allocation of places and the queue in front of it. The same round can invite a trades occupation at the 65-point pass mark and pass over an 85-point early-childhood teacher.
So the useful question is: what is your occupation’s line, and are you past it? Two free tools answer it, and neither needs an account:
FROZEN
The prediction verdict
- Locked before each round
- Never edited afterwards
- Graded against official results
LIVE
Your queue position
- Latest SkillSelect snapshot
- EOIs ahead of you, wait, allocation used
- Updates with every monthly snapshot
- The 189 prediction tool — a verdict for the next round: your occupation’s predicted cutoff, the date-of-effect window at that cutoff, and a plain-language answer to “will this round reach me?”. Frozen before each round so it can be graded against the official results afterwards.
- Check My Score on your occupation’s page — your live position: how many EOIs are ahead of you at your points and date of effect, computed from the latest SkillSelect snapshot.
Check yours in 3 steps
On the 189 prediction page, the next-round verdict card sits at the top. Takes about 30 seconds:
- Search your occupation — by name or ANZSCO code (e.g. “nurse”, or 2544). Every occupation in the 189 program is searchable, including groups with zero places this year.
- Enter your 189 points total. The date of effect is optional — it only decides your outcome when your score sits exactly on the cutoff (more below).
- Get your verdict. The card answers in plain language, alongside the predicted cutoff, the DOE window, expected invitation numbers for your group, and a picture of the queue.
Here is what comes back — a Registered Nurse (nec) with 85 points gets this card:
An example from a frozen projection — yours computes from your own occupation, points and date of effect, and can be shared as an image.
The four verdicts and what they mean
You're projected to be invited
Your score clears the predicted cutoff at any plausible round size. The next round is in reach.
It's close — your Date of Effect or the round size decides you
You sit on the cutoff. Fill in your DOE for the precise date test — and re-check after each new monthly snapshot, because borderline verdicts are the ones most sensitive to fresh data (especially new high-score EOIs joining your queue).
This round is projected to pass you by
Your score is below the predicted cutoff for this round. Later rounds in a program year usually ease as the backlog clears, so it is worth re-checking after each round.
Can't be invited this year
Your occupation group’s 189 allocation is zero, so no score changes the outcome. For these occupations, state nomination (190/491) and employer-sponsored (186) pathways are where to focus.
Prediction vs your live queue position
Don’t confuse the two readings. The prediction verdict is frozen — locked before the round and left untouched so it can be graded honestly afterwards. Your live position is a different tool: open your occupation’s page from the occupation directory and use Check My Score with the same points and date of effect. It computes, from the latest SkillSelect snapshot: how many EOIs are ahead of you, where that places you in the queue, how much of the year’s allocation has been used, and an estimated wait — and it updates as each monthly snapshot lands. It can also render your result as a shareable score card, like this one:
The shareable score card from Check My Score — demo data for a Secondary School Teacher at 85 points.
How the prediction is built
Four steps, all from public data:
- 01
Start from the official EOI pool
The SkillSelect snapshot lists every queued EOI — occupation, points, date of effect.
- 02
Project the queue forward
A monthly-graded inflow model estimates the EOIs still to arrive before the round, so the queue being simulated is the queue the round will actually face.
- 03
Estimate the round's size and split it
The expected number of invitations is modelled from the program-year allocations and recent round history, then divided across occupation groups in proportion to their places.
- 04
Simulate the invitations
From the highest score down, ties broken by date of effect, until each group's share runs out. Where each occupation stops is its predicted cutoff and DOE window.
The full methodology, with worked examples and its assumptions spelled out, is in the current round projection and how we test our forecasts.
Freeze first, grade later
The reason the verdict is worth reading at all: it is on the record before the round. Each prediction is frozen ahead of the official results, then compared against them line by line once Home Affairs publishes — hits and misses both stay archived in the track record. When a new monthly snapshot lands, a fresh version is frozen — if your verdict was borderline, that re-freeze is your cue to check again.
Common questions
›How many points do you need to be invited for a 189 visa?
There is no single answer — invitations are issued per occupation, so each occupation group has its own effective cutoff in each round, driven by its allocation of places and the queue in front of it. The same round can invite a trades occupation at the 65-point pass mark while an oversubscribed teaching occupation needs 90+. The only meaningful question is what your occupation's cutoff is, which the ImmiTrend 189 prediction tool answers per occupation, together with the date-of-effect window at that cutoff.
›Is the check free? Do I need an account?
The verdict is free and needs no sign-up: pick your occupation, enter your points (date of effect optional) and the verdict computes on the spot. An account is only needed if you want to save your occupation and score to your profile so they load automatically next time.
›What is the Date of Effect and when does it matter?
Your Date of Effect (DOE) is the timestamp your EOI reached its current points score. Within one occupation, invitations go from the highest score down, and at the cutoff score itself ties are broken first-come-first-served by DOE. That means the DOE only decides your outcome when your score sits exactly on the cutoff — which is why the field is optional. If you are on the line, entering it turns the verdict into a precise 'your DOE must be on or before this date'.
›What if my occupation group has zero 189 places this year?
The tool says so directly — 'cannot be invited this program year' — rather than showing a meaningless score line. No points total changes a zero allocation, so raising your score does not help for 189. State nomination (subclass 190/491) and employer-sponsored (subclass 186) pathways remain open to these occupations and are where to focus instead.
›What is the difference between the frozen prediction and my estimated queue position?
They answer different questions. The prediction verdict is frozen before each round and left untouched so it can be graded against the official results — it estimates what the next round is likely to do. Your queue position — how many EOIs are estimated ahead of you at your points and DOE, how much of the year's allocation is used, and the estimated wait — is computed from the latest SkillSelect snapshot on your occupation's page via Check My Score, and updates as each monthly snapshot lands; it is not a live official rank.
›How do I know the predictions are not adjusted after the fact?
Each round's prediction is locked in before the official results and archived. After Home Affairs publishes the round, every frozen number is compared against the official outcome and scored — hits and misses both stay on the record, on the prediction tool's track-record section. These are model predictions built from public SkillSelect data, not promises, and not migration advice; for decisions about your own case, consult an OMARA-registered migration agent.