After the 15 October 2026 189 Round: Who Was Invited, Where Places Remain, What to Watch Next

The short answer

The 15 October 2026 round used an estimated 16,711–22,685 of the 56,163 subclass 189 places we estimate are available across 87 occupation groups this year, about 30–40%. Registered Nurses took the most invitations and still have the most places left. Five groups were invited past our estimate of their 189 places, four more are at or near it, and three could be. Eleven groups had no 189 places to begin with.

Thank you to everyone who answered on the site, by email or in the comments: 351 direct invited-or-not answers across 89 occupations are what let us size the round and every group’s share of it. This post is the picture on 23 October. The live lists move on at the next round.

How big the round was

Home Affairs has not published the size of the round or the 2026-27 occupation ceilings. Our figure comes from the community. For each occupation group we took the invited and not-yet-invited answers, worked out the lowest score and date of effect that was still invited, and counted how many EOIs sat above that line in the 30 September pool. Adding the groups up gives 16,711–22,685 invitations. It is a range because some groups have few answers and the line can only be bracketed.

That is far larger than the 8,400–9,400 we assumed when we froze our prediction on 9 October, which is why most predicted cut-offs ran high. The ceilings pages already use this estimate.

Who was invited most

One group dominates. Registered Nurses alone account for roughly four in ten invitations. The next largest are two trades, Carpenters and Painters, which were invited past the 189 places we had estimated for them, and Solicitors, whose invitations match their whole September queue.

Queue left = EOIs at 65 points or more in the 30 September 189 pool, minus this round’s invitations. October lodgements are not in it. Where reported invitations exceed the September pool (Solicitors, and the high estimate for Carpenters and Environmental Scientists), the queue is floored at 0.

Where places remain

The ceiling is not a 189 quota. Each group’s ceiling is shared with the 186, 190, 491 and 494 visas; what is left after their grants is what 189 can use. These ten groups have the most of it left after the round. The bar is the group’s whole ceiling: grey is other visas, the solid segment is 189 invited at the low estimate, the hatched segment runs to the high estimate, and the pale remainder is what is left.

1. 1Registered Nurses25442,240–4,870
   58–81%

   Invited (15 Oct) 6,691–9,321 · Queue left 3,953–6,583

2. 2General Practitioners and Resident Medical Officers25312,489–2,678
   16–22%

   Invited (15 Oct) 493–682 · Queue left 100–289

3. 3Secondary School Teachers24142,462–2,487
   13%

   Invited (15 Oct) 358–383 · Queue left 2,137–2,162

4. 4Electricians34111,465
   12%

   Invited (15 Oct) 199 · Queue left 0

5. 5Physiotherapists25251,019–1,165
   23–33%

   Invited (15 Oct) 350–496 · Queue left 129–275

6. 6Occupational Therapists25241,005–1,154
   20–30%

   Invited (15 Oct) 288–437 · Queue left 82–231

7. 7Medical Imaging Professionals25121,025–1,042
   9–11%

   Invited (15 Oct) 104–121 · Queue left 93–110

8. 8Psychologists2723977–999
   2–4%

   Invited (15 Oct) 24–46 · Queue left 151–173

9. 9Plumbers3341899
   7%

   Invited (15 Oct) 71 · Queue left 0

10. 10Sports Coaches Instructors and Officials4523626–630
    1–2%

    Invited (15 Oct) 7–11 · Queue left 6–10

Groups at or past their ceiling

Five groups were invited past our estimate of their 189 places: University Lecturers and Tutors, Painting Trades Workers, Environmental Scientists, Motor Mechanics, Carpenters and Joiners. Being past our estimate is not the same as being full. The more likely reading is that our estimate for these groups is low: Home Affairs may have moved them to a higher tier, or employment in the group grew enough to lift the ceiling. The Department invites against its own ceilings, not ours, and we will correct these when the official figures are published.

Four more are at or near their places: Database and Systems Administrators and ICT Security Specialists, Actuaries Mathematicians and Statisticians, Telecommunications Engineering Professionals, Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians. Database and Systems Administrators have 2 of 38 places left. Three could exceed: Chemists and Food and Wine Scientists, Chemical and Materials Engineers, Electronics Engineers, where the reported range straddles the line and more answers are needed to say.

1. 1University Lecturers and Tutors2421over by 206–231
   261–280%

   Invited (15 Oct) 334–359 · Places for 189 128

2. 2Painting Trades Workers3322over by 184–392
   173–256%

   Invited (15 Oct) 436–644 · Places for 189 252

3. 3Environmental Scientists2343over by 78–193
   121–151%

   Invited (15 Oct) 457–572 · Places for 189 379

4. 4Motor Mechanics3212over by 33
   185%

   Invited (15 Oct) 72 · Places for 189 39

5. 5Carpenters and Joiners3312over by 24–208
   103–123%

   Invited (15 Oct) 937–1,121 · Places for 189 913

6. 6Database and Systems Administrators and ICT Security Specialists26212
   95%

   Invited (15 Oct) 36 · Places for 189 38

7. 7Actuaries Mathematicians and Statisticians22419–10
   97–98%

   Invited (15 Oct) 358–359 · Places for 189 368

8. 8Chemical and Materials Engineers23310–33
   91–114%

   Invited (15 Oct) 319–401 · Places for 189 352

9. 9Chemists and Food and Wine Scientists23420–102
   72–129%

   Invited (15 Oct) 258–465 · Places for 189 360

10. 10Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians312338–134
    67–91%

    Invited (15 Oct) 272–368 · Places for 189 406

What changed from 2025-26

Ceilings follow employment. Comparing our 2026-27 estimate with the official 2025-26 ceilings, the biggest rises are in health and the biggest falls are in allied health, midwifery, social work and early childhood education. A fall in the ceiling does not mean the places are gone: Audiologists and Speech Pathologists lost 251 but still have 570–582 places left.

Biggest increases

Biggest decreases

Only 8 of the 87 groups have a lower estimated ceiling than in 2025-26. Software and Applications Programmers rose by 126 but still have no 189 places, because grants to the other visas already exceed the ceiling.

What to watch next round

• Registered Nurses are the one large group where places could become the limit. With 2,240–4,870 places left and 3,953–6,583 still queued, the queue alone exceeds the low end of the places left, so another round this size could run out of places.
• Construction Managers are the next likely to hit their ceiling: 1,657–1,761 in the queue against 229–333 places left.
• Secondary School Teachers, GPs, Physiotherapists and Occupational Therapists have places to spare; their next-round counts are set by their queues, not the ceiling.
• Trades at 65 points (Electricians, Plumbers) depend entirely on new lodgements.
• The official 2026-27 ceilings. When Home Affairs publishes them, the estimate-versus-official comparison above becomes official-versus-official and the five “past our estimate” groups get their real limit.

How we calculate, and the limits

1. Ceiling (estimate). Each group’s average employment over 2025-26 times its tier rate (4%, 2%, 1% or 0.5%, minimum 500), the method Home Affairs describes in FOI fa-260100545. Official figures replace these when released.
2. Places for 189. The ceiling minus grants to 186 (estimated from 2025-26 nomination approvals), 190, 491 and 494 (DA 26/07/00368): 56,163 across 87 groups, 11 of them zero.
3. Invited. Community answers set a line per group; counting the September pool above it gives a range. Groups with few answers have wide ranges.
4. Queue left. The 30 September pool minus the round, so it ignores October lodgements and anyone who left.

Use these figures to compare groups, not as exact counts. Nothing here is advice for an individual case; a registered migration agent or Australian lawyer can tell you what it means for yours.

Live versions: the six ranked lists, and the full table of all 87 groups. Both update after every 189 round.

Common questions