# 189 预测与官方结果对比：2026年10月15日 轮次

数据来源: ImmiTrend 冻结的预测（round_prediction_log）；官方分数线来自澳大利亚内政部 SkillSelect 邀请轮次结果  
数据截至: 2026年10月15日  
页面: https://immitrend.com.au/zh/189-prediction/2026-10-15

这版预测于 2026年10月9日 冻结，早于 2026年10月15日 的邀请。在 158 个职业中，有 41 个的官方分数线落在我们的预测范围内，另有 45 个相差 5 分以内。平均误差 8.1 分。

## 这一轮冻结过的所有版本

| 冻结日期 | 方法 | 官方分数落在预测范围内 | 相差 5 分以内 | 平均误差 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026年8月7日 | 旧方法 | 36% (57/158) | 72% | 6.0 分 |
| 2026年9月4日 | 旧方法 | 32% (50/158) | 69% | 6.5 分 |
| 2026年10月2日 | 旧方法 | 32% (51/157) | 70% | 6.3 分 |
| 2026年10月8日 | 新方法 | 26% (41/158) | 54% | 8.1 分 |
| 2026年10月9日 (邀请当天线上版本) | 新方法 | 26% (41/158) | 54% | 8.1 分 |

其中两个版本对每个职业预测的分数完全相同，区别在于生效日期或邀请人数。

## 各职业的预测分数线与官方分数线 (159)

| 职业 | ANZSCO | 预测分数线 | 官方分数线 | 预测减官方 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Actuary | 224111 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Agricultural Consultant | 234111 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Agricultural Scientist | 234112 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Airconditioning and Mechanical Services Plumber | 334112 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic | 342111 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Architect | 232111 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Arts Administrator or Manager | 139911 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Audiologist | 252711 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Automotive Electrician | 321111 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Barrister | 271111 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Biotechnologist | 234514 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Boat Builder and Repairer | 399111 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Bricklayer | 331111 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Cabinetmaker | 394111 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Cardiologist | 253312 | 80 | 75 | +5 |
| Carpenter | 331212 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Carpenter and Joiner | 331211 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Cartographer | 232213 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Chemical Engineer | 233111 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Chemist | 234211 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Child Care Centre Manager | 134111 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Chiropractor | 252111 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Clinical Psychologist | 272311 | 80 | 90 | -10 |
| Conservator | 234911 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Construction Project Manager | 133111 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Dancer or Choreographer | 211112 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Dermatologist | 253911 | 80 | 85 | -5 |
| Diagnostic and Interventional Radiologist | 253917 | 80 | 75 | +5 |
| Drainer | 334113 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teacher | 241111 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Economist | 224311 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Educational Psychologist | 272312 | 80 | 65 | +15 |
| Electrical Engineering Draftsperson | 312311 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Electrical Engineering Technician | 312312 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Electrician (General) | 341111 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Electrician (Special Class) | 341112 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Electronic Equipment Trades Worker | 342313 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (General) | 342314 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (Special Class) | 342315 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Electronics Engineer | 233411 | 95 | 95 | 0 |
| Emergency Medicine Specialist | 253912 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Endocrinologist | 253315 | 80 | 80 | 0 |
| Engineering Manager | 133211 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Environmental Consultant | 234312 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Environmental Manager | 139912 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Environmental Research Scientist | 234313 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Environmental Scientists nec | 234399 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Fibrous Plasterer | 333211 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Fitter (General) | 323211 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Fitter-Welder | 323213 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Food Technologist | 234212 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Footballer | 452411 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Forester | 234113 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Gasfitter | 334114 | 65 | 70 | -5 |
| Gastroenterologist | 253316 | 80 | 75 | +5 |
| General Practitioner | 253111 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Geophysicist | 234412 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Glazier | 333111 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Horse Trainer | 361112 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Hydrogeologist | 234413 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| ICT Security Specialist | 262112 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
| Intensive Care Specialist | 253317 | 80 | 75 | +5 |
| Joiner | 331213 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Land Economist | 224511 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Landscape Architect | 232112 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Life Scientist (General) | 234511 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Life Scientist (nec) | 234599 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Lift Mechanic | 341113 | 65 | 80 | -15 |
| Locksmith | 323313 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Management Consultant | 224711 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Marine Biologist | 234516 | 85 | 95 | -10 |
| Materials Engineer | 233112 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Medical Diagnostic Radiographer | 251211 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Medical Laboratory Scientist | 234611 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Medical Oncologist | 253314 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Medical Practitioners nec | 253999 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Medical Radiation Therapist | 251212 | 85 | 75 | +10 |
| Metal Fabricator | 322311 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Metal Machinist (First Class) | 323214 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Metallurgist | 234912 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Meteorologist | 234913 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Microbiologist | 234517 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Midwife | 254111 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Mining Engineer (excluding Petroleum) | 233611 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Multimedia Specialist | 261211 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Music Director | 211212 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Musician (Instrumental) | 211213 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Natural and Physical Science Professionals nec | 234999 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Neurologist | 253318 | 80 | 75 | +5 |
| Neurosurgeon | 253513 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Nuclear Medicine Technologist | 251213 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Nurse Practitioner | 254411 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Nursing Clinical Director | 134212 | 85 | 75 | +10 |
| Obstetrician and Gynaecologist | 253913 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Occupational Therapist | 252411 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Ophthalmologist | 253914 | 80 | 80 | 0 |
| Optometrist | 251411 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Orthopaedic Surgeon | 253514 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Orthotist or Prosthetist | 251912 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Osteopath | 252112 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Other Spatial Scientist | 232214 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Paediatrician | 253321 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Painting Trades Worker | 332211 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Panelbeater | 324111 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Pathologist | 253915 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Petroleum Engineer | 233612 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Psychologist (nec) | 272399 | 80 | 80 | 0 |
| Physicist | 234914 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Physiotherapist | 252511 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Plumber (General) | 334111 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Podiatrist | 252611 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Primary Health Organisation Manager | 134213 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Psychiatrist | 253411 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Radiocommunications Technician | 313211 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Registered Nurse (Aged Care) | 254412 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Child and Family Health) | 254413 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Community Health) | 254414 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Critical Care and Emergency) | 254415 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Developmental Disability) | 254416 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Disability and Rehabilitation) | 254417 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Medical Practice) | 254421 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Medical) | 254418 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Mental Health) | 254422 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Paediatrics) | 254425 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Perioperative) | 254423 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurse (Surgical) | 254424 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Registered Nurses (nec) | 254499 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Roof Plumber | 334115 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Secondary School Teacher | 241411 | 80 | 80 | 0 |
| Sheetmetal Trades Worker | 322211 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Shipwright | 399112 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Social Worker | 272511 | 80 | 80 | 0 |
| Solicitor | 271311 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Solid Plasterer | 333212 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Sonographer | 251214 | 85 | 75 | +10 |
| Special Education Teachers nec | 241599 | 80 | 80 | 0 |
| Special Needs Teacher | 241511 | 80 | 80 | 0 |
| Specialist Physician (General Medicine) | 253311 | 80 | 75 | +5 |
| Specialist Physicians nec | 253399 | 80 | 85 | -5 |
| Speech Pathologist | 252712 | 80 | 70 | +10 |
| Statistician | 224113 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Stonemason | 331112 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Surgeon (General) | 253511 | 85 | 90 | -5 |
| Surveyor | 232212 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Technical Cable Jointer | 342212 | 85 | 70 | +15 |
| Telecommunications Engineer | 263311 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Telecommunications Field Engineer | 313212 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Telecommunications Network Engineer | 263312 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Telecommunications Network Planner | 313213 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Telecommunications Technical Officer or Technologist | 313214 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
| Tennis Coach | 452316 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| University Lecturer | 242111 | — | 90 | — |
| Urologist | 253518 | 85 | 100 | -15 |
| Valuer | 224512 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Veterinarian | 234711 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Wall and Floor Tiler | 333411 | 65 | 65 | 0 |
| Welder (First Class) | 322313 | 85 | 80 | +5 |
| Welfare Centre Manager | 134214 | 85 | 65 | +20 |
| Zoologist | 234518 | 85 | 95 | -10 |

## 常见问题

### ImmiTrend 对 2026年10月15日 189 邀请的预测准确吗？

在 158 个职业中，有 41 个的官方分数线落在我们的预测范围内，另有 45 个相差 5 分以内。平均误差 8.1 分。多数职业的官方分数线低于我们的预测。

### 2026年10月15日 的 189 邀请发出了多少份邀请？预测假设的是多少？

这一轮邀请了 20,000 人，冻结的预测假设 8,400–9,400 人。

### 2026年10月15日 这一轮的预测是什么时候发布的？

这版预测于 2026年10月9日 冻结，早于 2026年10月15日 的邀请。这一轮共冻结过 5 个版本，全部按发布时的原样保留，并在本页逐一对比。

### 下一轮 189 邀请的预测在哪里看？

当前的预测在 immitrend.com.au/zh/189-prediction。每一轮邀请前我们都会冻结预测，移民局公布结果后在这样的页面上对比。预测只有参考价值，不是保证。

## 相关页面

- [下一轮 189 邀请预测](https://immitrend.com.au/zh/189-prediction)
- [2026年10月15日 各职业官方邀请结果](https://immitrend.com.au/zh/rounds/2026-10-15)
- [完整的预测成绩单](https://immitrend.com.au/zh/blog/189-prediction-scorecard-october-2026)
- [更早的一轮: 2026年6月4日](https://immitrend.com.au/zh/189-prediction/2026-06-04)