# Will I Be Invited in the Next 189 Round? Prediction & Track Record

Next 189 round (expected by 31 October 2026): we predict a cut-off of 85 points for most occupations, 80 for most health and education occupations and 65 for construction trades, based on the SkillSelect EOI pool as at 30 September 2026 plus one month of new EOIs at the recent pace and a round of 8,400–9,400 invitations. Find your occupation in the prediction table on this page.

Prediction frozen on 9 October 2026, before the round. EOI pool as at 30 September 2026. Next 189 round: expected by 31 October 2026.

## Next round prediction: all occupations

Predicted cut-off and date of effect for the next 189 round, from the 9 October 2026 freeze. Ranges run from a round of 8,400 to 9,400 invitations.

| Occupation | ANZSCO | Predicted cut-off | Date of effect | Expected invitations | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Registered Nurses (nec) | 254499 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 818–1,074 | High |
| Carpenter | 331212 | 65 | 10 Aug 2026 | 842 | High |
| Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teacher | 241111 | 85 | 7 Oct 2025 | 513 | Medium |
| Secondary School Teacher | 241411 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 338–430 | High |
| Statistician | 224113 | 85 | 11 Sep 2026 | 332 | Medium |
| Multimedia Specialist | 261211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 273–283 | Low |
| Chemical Engineer | 233111 | 85 | 24 Jul 2026 | 276 | High |
| General Practitioner | 253111 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 227–275 | High |
| Social Worker | 272511 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 204–256 | Medium |
| Registered Nurse (Aged Care) | 254412 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 193–253 | High |
| Medical Practitioners nec | 253999 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 217–245 | High |
| Electrician (General) | 341111 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 235 | Medium |
| Electronics Engineer | 233411 | 95 | 11 Apr 2026 | 234 | Medium |
| Telecommunications Engineer | 263311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 220–233 | Low |
| Bricklayer | 331111 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 226 | Medium |
| Wall and Floor Tiler | 333411 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 219 | Medium |
| Architect | 232111 | 85 | 31 Aug 2026 | 177 | High |
| Construction Project Manager | 133111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 140–165 | Medium |
| Management Consultant | 224711 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 127–149 | Medium |
| Registered Nurse (Medical) | 254418 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 116–144 | High |
| Food Technologist | 234212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 116–134 | Medium |
| Physiotherapist | 252511 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 104–132 | High |
| Solicitor | 271311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 92–127 | Low |
| Registered Nurse (Critical Care and Emergency) | 254415 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 94–114 | High |
| Chemist | 234211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 97–110 | Medium |
| Biotechnologist | 234514 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | 93 | Low |
| Occupational Therapist | 252411 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 68–82 | High |
| Life Scientist (General) | 234511 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | 78 | Low |
| Telecommunications Network Engineer | 263312 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 72–76 | Low |
| Actuary | 224111 | 85 | 11 Sep 2026 | 75 | Medium |
| Environmental Consultant | 234312 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 63–74 | Medium |
| Materials Engineer | 233112 | 85 | 24 Jul 2026 | 70 | Medium |
| Carpenter and Joiner | 331211 | 65 | 10 Aug 2026 | 69 | Medium |
| Solid Plasterer | 333212 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 69 | Medium |
| Motor Mechanic (General) | 321211 | 90 | 20 Aug 2026 | 66 | Low |
| Registered Nurse (Surgical) | 254424 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 45–63 | High |
| Registered Nurse (Mental Health) | 254422 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 43–61 | High |
| Agricultural Scientist | 234112 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 46–55 | Medium |
| Electrical Engineering Technician | 312312 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 54–55 | Medium |
| Veterinarian | 234711 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 44–54 | Low |
| Medical Laboratory Scientist | 234611 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 34–50 | Medium |
| Registered Nurse (Perioperative) | 254423 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 31–48 | High |
| Microbiologist | 234517 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | 47 | Low |
| Registered Nurse (Paediatrics) | 254425 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 35–45 | High |
| Agricultural Consultant | 234111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 37–44 | Medium |
| Mining Engineer (excluding Petroleum) | 233611 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 36–42 | Low |
| Plumber (General) | 334111 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 42 | Medium |
| Phychologist (nec) | 272399 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 37–40 | Medium |
| Speech Pathologist | 252712 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 33–40 | Medium |
| ICT Security Specialist | 262112 | 100 | 18 May 2026 | 36 | Low |
| Life Scientist (nec) | 234599 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | 34 | Low |
| Environmental Research Scientist | 234313 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 30–33 | Medium |
| Economist | 224311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 27–32 | Medium |
| Landscape Architect | 232112 | 85 | 31 Aug 2026 | 28 | High |
| Telecommunications Network Planner | 313213 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 28 | Medium |
| Painting Trades Worker | 332211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 19–27 | Low |
| Petroleum Engineer | 233612 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 24–27 | Medium |
| Biochemist | 234513 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | 25 | Low |
| Airconditioning and Mechanical Services Plumber | 334112 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 23 | Medium |
| Other Spatial Scientist | 232214 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 16–22 | Medium |
| Telecommunications Field Engineer | 313212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 21–22 | Medium |
| Telecommunications Technical Officer or Technologist | 313214 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 15–22 | Medium |
| Emergency Medicine Specialist | 253912 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 19–20 | High |
| Glazier | 333111 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 20 | Low |
| Electrical Engineering Draftsperson | 312311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 12–19 | High |
| Welder (First Class) | 322313 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 14–19 | Medium |
| Physicist | 234914 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 15–18 | Medium |
| Marine Biologist | 234516 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | 17 | Medium |
| Midwife | 254111 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 14–17 | High |
| Registered Nurse (Disability and Rehabilitation) | 254417 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 13–16 | High |
| Registered Nurse (Community Health) | 254414 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 14 | High |
| Registered Nurse (Medical Practice) | 254421 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 11–13 | Medium |
| Roof Plumber | 334115 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 13 | Medium |
| Environmental Manager | 139912 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 8–12 | Medium |
| Audiologist | 252711 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 9–11 | High |
| Fibrous Plasterer | 333211 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 11 | Medium |
| Surveyor | 232212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 8–10 | Medium |
| Lift Mechanic | 341113 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 9 | Low |
| Medical Diagnostic Radiographer | 251211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 6–9 | Medium |
| Specialist Physician (General Medicine) | 253311 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 7–8 | Low |
| Chiropractor | 252111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 3–7 | Medium |
| Drainer | 334113 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 7 | Low |
| Natural and Physical Science Professionals nec | 234999 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 5–7 | Low |
| Special Needs Teacher | 241511 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 4–7 | High |
| Zoologist | 234518 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | 7 | Low |
| Diesel Motor Mechanic | 321212 | 90 | 20 Aug 2026 | 6 | Low |
| Engineering Manager | 133211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 5–6 | Medium |
| Geophysicist | 234412 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 5–6 | Medium |
| Joiner | 331213 | 65 | 10 Aug 2026 | 6 | High |
| Optometrist | 251411 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 5–6 | High |
| Stonemason | 331112 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 6 | High |
| Gasfitter | 334114 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 5 | High |
| Metallurgist | 234912 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 5 | Low |
| Paediatrician | 253321 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 4–5 | High |
| Podiatrist | 252611 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 4–5 | High |
| Registered Nurse (Child and Family Health) | 254413 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 5 | Low |
| Specialist Physicians nec | 253399 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 5 | High |
| Clinical Psychologist | 272311 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 4 | Low |
| Diagnostic and Interventional Radiologist | 253917 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 3–4 | Medium |
| Fitter (General) | 323211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 2–4 | Low |
| Arts Administrator or Manager | 139911 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 2–3 | Low |
| Cabinetmaker | 394111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1–3 | High |
| Educational Psychologist | 272312 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 3 | Low |
| Electronic Equipment Trades Worker | 342313 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 3 | Medium |
| Forester | 234113 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1–3 | Low |
| Valuer | 224512 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 2–3 | Low |
| Child Care Centre Manager | 134111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1–2 | Low |
| Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (General) | 342314 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 2 | Medium |
| Environmental Scientists nec | 234399 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 2 | Low |
| Land Economist | 224511 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1–2 | Low |
| Musician (Instrumental) | 211213 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1–2 | Low |
| Ophthalmologist | 253914 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1–2 | Medium |
| Psychiatrist | 253411 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 2 | Medium |
| Tennis Coach | 452316 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1–2 | Medium |
| Automotive Electrician | 321111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Barrister | 271111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Medium |
| Cartographer | 232213 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | High |
| Conservator | 234911 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Dancer or Choreographer | 211112 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Medium |
| Dermatologist | 253911 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Electrician (Special Class) | 341112 | 65 · all invited | Any date | 1 | High |
| Endocrinologist | 253315 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | High |
| Gastroenterologist | 253316 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | High |
| Hydrogeologist | 234413 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Meteorologist | 234913 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Neurologist | 253318 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 0–1 | Low |
| Nurse Practitioner | 254411 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 0–1 | Low |
| Obstetrician and Gynaecologist | 253913 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Orthopaedic Surgeon | 253514 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 0–1 | Low |
| Primary Health Organisation Manager | 134213 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Radiocommunications Technician | 313211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Sheetmetal Trades Worker | 322211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 0–1 | Low |
| Sonographer | 251214 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Special Education Teachers nec | 241599 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | High |
| Surgeon (General) | 253511 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | Low |
| Urologist | 253518 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | 1 | High |
| Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanic | 342111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Animal Attendants and Trainers nec | 361199 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Artistic Director | 212111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Boat Builder and Repairer | 399111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Botanist | 234515 | 85 | 25 Jan 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Business Machine Mechanic | 342311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Cardiologist | 253312 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Cardiothoracic Surgeon | 253512 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Clinical Haematologist | 253313 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Conservation Officer | 234311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Database Administrator | 262111 | 100 | 18 May 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Diving Instructor (Open Water) | 452311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Dog Handler or Trainer | 361111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Electrical Linesworker | 342211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Electronic Instrument Trades Worker (Special Class) | 342315 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Exercise Physiologist | 234915 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Fitter and Turner | 323212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Fitter-Welder | 323213 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Footballer | 452411 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Geologist | 234411 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Gymnastics Coach or Instructor | 452312 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Health and Welfare Services Managers nec | 134299 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Health Diagnostic and Promotion Professionals nec | 251999 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Health Promotion Officer | 251911 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Horse Riding Coach or Instructor | 452313 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Horse Trainer | 361112 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Intensive Care Specialist | 253317 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Jockey | 452413 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Laboratory Manager | 139913 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Locksmith | 323313 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Mathematician | 224112 | 85 | 11 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Medical Administrator | 134211 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Medical Oncologist | 253314 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Medical Radiation Therapist | 251212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Metal Fabricator | 322311 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Metal Fitters and Machinists nec | 323299 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Metal Machinist (First Class) | 323214 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Motorcycle Mechanic | 321213 | 90 | 20 Aug 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Music Director | 211212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Music Professionals nec | 211299 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Neurosurgeon | 253513 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Nuclear Medicine Technologist | 251213 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Nursing Clinical Director | 134212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Organisation and Methods Analyst | 224712 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Organisational Psychologist | 272313 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Orthoptist | 251412 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Orthotist or Prosthetist | 251912 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Osteopath | 252112 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Other Sports Coach or Instructor | 452317 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Otorhinolaryngologist | 253515 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Paediatric Surgeon | 253516 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Panelbeater | 324111 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Pathologist | 253915 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Plastic and Reconstructive Surgeon | 253517 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Pressure Welder | 322312 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Project Builder | 133112 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Psychotherapist | 272314 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Quality Assurance Manager | 139914 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Radiation Oncologist | 253918 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Registered Nurse (Developmental Disability) | 254416 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Renal Medicine Specialist | 253322 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Resident Medical Officer | 253112 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Rheumatologist | 253323 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Shipwright | 399112 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Small Engine Mechanic | 321214 | 90 | 20 Aug 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Snowsport Instructor | 452314 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Specialist Managers nec | 139999 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Sports Administrator | 139915 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Sports Development Officer | 452321 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Sportspersons nec | 452499 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Swimming Coach or Instructor | 452315 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Systems Administrator | 262113 | 100 | 18 May 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Teacher of the Hearing Impaired | 241512 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Teacher of the Sight Impaired | 241513 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Technical Cable Jointer | 342212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Thoracic Medicine Specialist | 253324 | 80 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Vascular Surgeon | 253521 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Web Developer | 261212 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Welfare Centre Manager | 134214 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Wine Maker | 234213 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Zookeeper | 361114 | 85 | 10 Aug – 9 Sep 2026 | — | No current EOIs above the line |
| Accountant (General) | 221111 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Aeronautical Engineer | 233911 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Agricultural Engineer | 233912 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Analyst Programmer | 261311 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Biomedical Engineer | 233913 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Chef | 351311 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Civil Engineer | 233211 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Civil Engineering Draftsperson | 312211 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Civil Engineering Technician | 312212 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Company Secretary | 221211 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Computer Network and Systems Engineer | 263111 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Developer Programmer | 261312 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Electrical Engineer | 233311 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Engineering Professionals (nec) | 233999 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Engineering Technologist | 233914 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Environmental Engineer | 233915 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| External Auditor | 221213 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Geotechnial Engineer | 233212 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| ICT Business Analyst | 261111 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Industrial Engineer | 233511 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Internal Auditor | 221214 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Management Accountant | 221112 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Mechanical Engineer | 233512 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Naval Architect | 233916 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Network Administrator | 263112 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Network Analyst | 263113 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Production or Plant Engineer | 233513 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Quantity Surveyor | 233213 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Software and Applications Programmers (nec) | 261399 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Software Engineer | 261313 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Software Tester | 261314 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Structural Engineer | 233214 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Systems Analyst | 261112 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Taxation Accountant | 221113 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| Transport Engineer | 233215 | — | — | — | Closed this year |
| University Lecturer | 242111 | — | — | — | Closed this year |

You are expected to be invited if your score is above the minimum, or equal to it with a date of effect on or before the date shown.

## How the prediction is made

We start from the SkillSelect EOI pool as at 30 September 2026 plus one month of new EOIs at the recent pace, ranked by points and then by date of effect, the order in which invitations are issued. For each occupation we work out where a round of 8,400–9,400 invitations is likely to reach in that queue, and read the cut-off and date of effect off it, treating occupation ceilings as a cap rather than a target. We froze this prediction on 9 October 2026, before the round, and will grade it against the official results afterwards. Re-run blind on the five past rounds we can check, the method matched the official cut-off exactly for 63% of the occupations it predicted and came within 5 points for 92%.

## How we tested the new method

We re-ran the new method blind on every past round we can check, using only data available before each round, and compared it with the previous method.

| Round | Round size | New method | Previous method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Sep 2024 | 7,973 | 49% exact · 87% ±5 · 3.4 pts | Not testable |
| 7 Nov 2024 | 15,000 | 51% exact · 93% ±5 · 2.9 pts | Not testable |
| 21 Aug 2025 | 6,887 | 87% exact · 92% ±5 · 1.3 pts | 33% exact · 50% ±5 · 8.8 pts |
| 13 Nov 2025 | 10,000 | 81% exact · 96% ±5 · 1.2 pts | 28% exact · 54% ±5 · 7.9 pts |
| 4 Jun 2026 | 10,000 | 47% exact · 89% ±5 · 3.2 pts | 22% exact · 59% ±5 · 8.0 pts |

Across all five rounds: exact for 63% of the occupations it predicted, within 5 points for 92%, average error 2.4 points.

Limits: only five rounds can be checked (SkillSelect keeps 24 months of EOI data); the previous method could not be tested on 2024 rounds because 2024-25 occupation ceilings were never published; four of the five rounds use monthly data without dates of effect. The first pre-published test is the round expected by 31 October 2026.

Canonical page: https://immitrend.com.au/189-prediction